Trade review and trading advice for the European currency

The test of the 1.1781 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

The absence of data from the eurozone allowed the euro to continue its advance, while the insignificant German import price index was, as expected, ignored by market participants. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD currency pair broke through another important resistance level, providing opportunities for further upside.

Nevertheless, it should be taken into account that after midday, data will be released on U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, changes in durable goods orders, as well as industrial production figures. Toward the end of the day, the consumer confidence index will also be published. GDP, as the main indicator of the economy's health, will influence future interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve. Data on durable goods orders and industrial production will help assess the condition of the manufacturing sector, while the consumer confidence index will reflect consumer sentiment, which is the driving force behind consumer spending—a significant component of GDP. A decline in confidence may signal a reduction in consumer activity and a slowdown in economic growth.

Taken together, all these indicators will provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of the U.S. economy and set the direction for market movement in the near term.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching the price area around 1.1812 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1855. At the 1.1855 level, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected within the trend following weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1782 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1812 and 1.1855 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1782 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1750, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Strong pressure on the pair will return in the case of strong U.S. economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1812 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1782 and 1.1750 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.