Global liquefied natural gas markets are bracing for an extended period of price pressure. According to a report from BCA Research, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will have a more pronounced impact on the gas sector than on the oil market, with supply shortages expected to persist throughout 2026.

Analysts predict that even if the waterway is reopened by May, global LNG exports are projected to decline by at least 6% by the end of the year. Unlike oil, the gas market has less logistical flexibility, making disruptions in the Persian Gulf critical for global supply balance.

The situation is most acute in Asia, where major importers are being forced to implement strict energy-saving measures and rationing. To offset the loss of Qatari gas, Asia-Pacific countries are rapidly ramping up coal generation and entering the spot market.

Experts note that to maintain economic stability, spot gas prices must remain below the extreme levels seen in 2022. Otherwise, the market risks not just shortages but a full-scale collapse in industrial demand.

Despite the grim forecasts for the next 12 to 18 months, the mid-term outlook appears optimistic. From 2027 onward, new liquefaction capacities are expected to be deployed on a large scale in the United States, Qatar, Canada, and Senegal.

The large-scale expansion of these projects is anticipated to create a "safety cushion" that could shift the global market from acute tightness to a phase of surplus by 2028. Nevertheless, until that time, experts advise exercising extreme caution regarding investments in energy-intensive sectors and utilities, whose profitability is directly tied to the cost of imported gas. The key question remains the pace at which new projects can be scaled up to close the emerging "Hormuz gap."