Deutsche Bank, one of the world’s leading financial institutions, has significantly downgraded its gold price forecasts in the global market. According to Bloomberg, bank analysts have slashed their price targets for the precious metal by 22%. Based on new macroeconomic calculations, gold is expected to average $4,300 per troy ounce in the third quarter of 2026, down from earlier expectations of a spike to $4,800. Similar pessimism was expressed by analysts at American investment bank Goldman Sachs, which also lowered its forecast by $500. Currently, the price of gold is holding below the $4,100 mark, having lost about 12% over the quarter due to the Middle Eastern conflict and the accompanying rise in energy prices.

Michael Hsueh, the chief research analyst, explained that a key driver behind the decline in this safe-haven asset has been a sharp reassessment of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, combined with strong macroeconomic indicators regarding the US economy. The expert warned that if the American regulator decides to raise rates by another 3 to 4 percentage points under inflationary pressures, gold prices could plunge to $3,800 per ounce. The situation is further compounded by the nearly absent traditional investment support for the market, due to ongoing sell-offs of shares from large exchange-traded funds backed by physical metal. In this context, the only stable factor supporting the sector remains robust demand from global central banks.

Additional pressure on the precious metal has stemmed from the outcome of the recent Federal Reserve meeting. During the session held on June 18, US policymakers unanimously decided, with all 12 committee members in agreement, to maintain the federal funds rate at its current high level of 3.50%–3.75%. This marked the first official decision by the agency following the recent change in its leadership, disappointing investors who were hoping for the imminent easing of monetary conditions in the country. Nevertheless, Deutsche Bank economists emphasize that even with these negative factors, the long-term trend remains moderately bullish, and gold still has the potential to rise from current levels, albeit at a much smaller scale than previously anticipated.