Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1-Hour Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair showed minimal movement on Wednesday, declining by about 20-30 pips. Volatility was practically absent as the market geared up for Christmas, with no macroeconomic or fundamental backdrop. The market was closed on Thursday, and trading resumed only tonight. It can be said that the holidays have started, meaning there will be more days off than usual, and volatility may be ultra-low during these days. If the market finds any grounds for trading, predicting possible movements will only be possible based on technical factors. The hourly timeframe continues to show an upward trend, so buy signals are more relevant for execution. The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop was absent on Wednesday and Thursday, and will remain absent on Friday.

5-Minute Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was generated on Wednesday—a bounce from the level of 1.1808. This occurred during the Asian trading session and was profitable, with the price moving down by about 20 pips, which novice traders could have captured. On Friday night, we did not see any interesting movements or trading signals.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. The price may soon retest the 1.1800-1.1830 area, which marks the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe. It is quite possible that this time we will see a breakout from the six-month sideways channel. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the U.S. dollar; thus, we expect the pair to grow in the medium term.

On Friday, novice traders can trade from the 1.1808 level, where the price bounced on Wednesday. A bounce from this level can be viewed as a sell signal, but we are still dealing with an upward trend even in the short term. A breakout of this level will allow for long positions with a target of 1.1851.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders should consider the following levels: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. There are no significant events or reports scheduled in either the Eurozone or the U.S. today. Thus, we may expect very weak movements.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.