Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1441 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Last Friday, markets showed reduced trading activity due to the celebration of Independence Day in the United States. The day before the festivities, subdued volatility was observed, resulting in few significant changes in quotes for most major currency pairs, including the U.S. dollar against the euro.

Today promises to be eventful. Among the most anticipated data releases are the changes in industrial orders in Germany, an important barometer of the largest economy in the Eurozone. Strong indicators in this sector will signal a recovery in industrial activity and strengthen the euro's position. Along with German orders, investors will focus on the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI). This indicator reflects inflation expectations and can significantly influence the European Central Bank's monetary policy. An increase in PPI may prompt traders to view the euro as a more attractive asset for purchases. Data on changes in retail sales in the Eurozone is also expected. This figure indicates consumer demand and general economic activity. An increase in retail sales will indicate the health of the consumer sector and positively impact the euro's outlook.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: Buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.1435 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 1.1455. At 1.1455, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can expect the euro to rise only after good Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1422 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect growth towards opposing levels of 1.1435 and 1.1455.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level 1.1422 (red line on the chart). The target will be level 1.1399, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return only if the figures are poor. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1435 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1422 and 1.1399.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.