Demand for the dollar decreased slightly yesterday afternoon, which was quite surprising given US data that indicated the opposite.

Traders once again ignored the strong US labor market report, favoring the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Despite encouraging data on initial jobless claims, which typically spur buying of the dollar, traders preferred to focus on escalating tensions in the region. The current situation creates uncertainty for further market movements. Strong economic data from the US could serve as a reason for the dollar to strengthen, but concerns related to the Middle East remain the dominant factor.

Due to Good Friday, today is a holiday in the European market. The lack of significant trading activity on major European exchanges is expected to reduce activity and create conditions for a period of calm. Among the economic data, only figures on changes in industrial production in France are expected today. Although this indicator is important for assessing the state of the French economy, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall European markets during the holiday.

Against the backdrop of limited macroeconomic information, traders' attention is likely to be focused on developments in the Middle East and related news.

There is also no statistical data from the UK today, so the GBP/USD pair may remain range-bound.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (for Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 1.1540 may lead to an increase in the euro to the area of 1.1560 and 1.1590;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 1.1525 may lead to a decline in the euro to the area of 1.1485 and 1.1445;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 1.3240 may lead to a rise in the pound to the area of 1.3260 and 1.3290;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 1.3215 may lead to a decline in the pound to the area of 1.3182 and 1.3160;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buying on a breakout of the level 159.74 may lead to an increase in the dollar to the area of 159.84 and 160.24;
• Selling on a breakout of the level 159.53 may lead to a sell-off in the dollar to the area of 159.29 and 159.00;

Mean Reversion Strategy (for Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1548 on a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1521 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3241 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3213 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6921 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6901 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3934 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3912 on a return to this level;